房地产周期,中国的房地产市场周期是几年？

房价为何持续上涨？宏观调控为何成效不咋样？房地产业与宏观经济到底是什么关系？房地产市场有其自身的发展规律，政府决策者们是否了解、认识、把握了它的“生理周期”？俗话说，“强扭的瓜不甜”，依靠铁腕政府完全可以抑制市场热度，稳定房价增长态势，但其最终结果到底是“甜”还是“苦”？。在此，笔者对房地产市场周期问题稍做分析。 最后，房地产产品具有使用性和投资性两种功能属性。在构建和谐社会的历史背景下，房地产的使用功能有被单一化的趋势，其投资功能明显受到抑制。房地产产品的保值和增值功能是被全世界认可和推崇的，在国内房地产投资客纷纷退出的同时，大批国外基金却争先恐后地涌入国内直扑房地产，恰恰证明了这一点，虽然也有赌人民制升值的诱因，但这些基金多由国外养老基金构成，追求持续稳定回报是首要因素。笔者认为，适当释放房地产的投资（而非投机）功能有助于促进物业流通和保值增值，但前提是一定要明确区分投资型市场（商铺、写字楼、豪宅等）和消费型市场（普通商品房、经济适用房、限价商品房等）。新一轮调控流露出“分类指导、区别对待”的倾向，反映出政府的宏观调控水平在提高，更加尊重房地产业的内在发展规律。 From the above, can be summed up from a macroeconomic out of the six characteristics of the real estate or development trends: First, on the whole, trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in the medium-term (usually 10 or so) of the cycle comparison out of step Second, in a macroeconomic development cycle, fluctuations in the economy range ( by Gu peak value) of small change in the trend, growing to be a soft landing operation of both countries, the cyclical fluctuations in the real estate industry will then decrease. Third, the industry since 1999 in this round of development is the real shape of the market, before the planned system from the development experience not meaningful. Fourth, this round of macro-economic cycle will be to 2012 before the end of 2006 is the first year of 11th Five-Year Plan, the recent trend in the real estate industry more stable growth. Fifth, the Olympic Games and the World Expo on China''''''''s economy and obviously the driving role of the real estate industry, the Central out of political considerations, nor in 2008 before the real estate industry fell into the doldrums, and therefore nearly 23 industry overall situation was rose steadily. Sixth, 11th Five-Year Plan period, China''''''''s economic growth mode will be export-oriented to domestic demand-oriented, and real estate to promote domestic demand as the "key" to the central authorities will not wait for its depressed last year, "the six" regulation focus from "control overheating" to "optimize the structure."

一般房地产商当获得一定规模的土地开发权后，限于其资金、市场等因素，往往采取统一规划、分期实施的开发方式，开发期就是指从获得土地开发权着手规划到该块地产全部规划实施完成的期间过程；建设期则是指拟开发土地的基础设施、地上附着物（如建筑物、构筑物、绿化工程等）中具体某项所耗费的建设时间；发展周期一般不指具体的开发项目，而是用于某个房地产企业或房地产行业演变过程的特征指标（如新生、成长、成熟、衰退等概念），范畴太大，几句话是说不清楚的。